1. Who made up the "universe" or polling population of this particular poll?
The "universe" of this polls was likely Democratic caucus-goers.
2. If 25% of people say they are supporting Bernie Sanders and the sampling error is 4.8%, what is the actual range of Sanders's support?
From 20.2% to 29.8%.
3. Using the margin of error, describe a possible scenario in which Sanders would not win, but still fits the polls data.
Biden is stated to have 18% of the support. With 4.8% sampling error, this means he could have up to 22.8%. Sanders could have as low as 20.2%, and thus would lose in this scenario.
4. What were the results found in earlier polls taken in Nevada this year?
An early January poll from Suffolk University/USA Today showed Biden leading with 19% compared to Sanders's 18%. Warren trailed the two at 10%. A Fox News poll taken at the same time showed Biden beating Sanders 23% to 17%, with Warren following at 12%.
5. What changes took place in Nevada's candidate selection after 2004?
Nevada switched from holding primaries to caucuses, moving to a much earlier date on the primary calendar. While this was intended to make the primary system more diverse, it made polling and actually selecting candidates more uncertain as a result of respondents not always understanding how caucuses work. Additionally, there is no previous data off of which to base decisions.
6. Why does FiveThirtyEight say that it's harder to poll people in Nevada?
It is harder to interview people, as a large number work odd hours or move a lot.
7. Why is it easier to poll the Iowa caucuses than the Nevada caucuses?
Iowa caucuses are well established, while Nevada's are relatively new. As a result, pollsters have not built the necessary infrastructure or gained enough expertise to know which results/responses to weigh more heavily.
8. How does Nevada allow early voting if this is a caucus instead of a primary?
Nevada attempts to model caucusing in its early voting through the use of ranked-choice voting.
9. Why does Nevada have a fluctuating population?
It's economy is heavily based on tourism and casino industries; as a result, its population waxes and wanes.
10. Why is conducting a poll so much more expensive if you want to have an accurate Nevada poll?
A large part of Nevada's population works night shifts. Thus, polls must be conducted over a 24-hour period instead of just the evening. The transient population means that they must also maintain up-to-date phone records and continue to develop new models, thus raising the costs of polling people.
The "universe" of this polls was likely Democratic caucus-goers.
2. If 25% of people say they are supporting Bernie Sanders and the sampling error is 4.8%, what is the actual range of Sanders's support?
From 20.2% to 29.8%.
3. Using the margin of error, describe a possible scenario in which Sanders would not win, but still fits the polls data.
Biden is stated to have 18% of the support. With 4.8% sampling error, this means he could have up to 22.8%. Sanders could have as low as 20.2%, and thus would lose in this scenario.
4. What were the results found in earlier polls taken in Nevada this year?
An early January poll from Suffolk University/USA Today showed Biden leading with 19% compared to Sanders's 18%. Warren trailed the two at 10%. A Fox News poll taken at the same time showed Biden beating Sanders 23% to 17%, with Warren following at 12%.
5. What changes took place in Nevada's candidate selection after 2004?
Nevada switched from holding primaries to caucuses, moving to a much earlier date on the primary calendar. While this was intended to make the primary system more diverse, it made polling and actually selecting candidates more uncertain as a result of respondents not always understanding how caucuses work. Additionally, there is no previous data off of which to base decisions.
6. Why does FiveThirtyEight say that it's harder to poll people in Nevada?
It is harder to interview people, as a large number work odd hours or move a lot.
7. Why is it easier to poll the Iowa caucuses than the Nevada caucuses?
Iowa caucuses are well established, while Nevada's are relatively new. As a result, pollsters have not built the necessary infrastructure or gained enough expertise to know which results/responses to weigh more heavily.
8. How does Nevada allow early voting if this is a caucus instead of a primary?
Nevada attempts to model caucusing in its early voting through the use of ranked-choice voting.
9. Why does Nevada have a fluctuating population?
It's economy is heavily based on tourism and casino industries; as a result, its population waxes and wanes.
10. Why is conducting a poll so much more expensive if you want to have an accurate Nevada poll?
A large part of Nevada's population works night shifts. Thus, polls must be conducted over a 24-hour period instead of just the evening. The transient population means that they must also maintain up-to-date phone records and continue to develop new models, thus raising the costs of polling people.
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